Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.900571 1.986818 2.078052 2.182333 2.298983 2.426372 2.577308
2025-11-02 1.796582 1.904093 2.021495 2.160618 2.322935 2.508949 2.742356
2025-11-09 1.737728 1.859352 1.995177 2.160413 2.359431 2.596357 2.908210
2025-11-16 1.694462 1.826271 1.976032 2.162043 2.391954 2.674581 3.062606
2025-11-23 1.657914 1.797102 1.957428 2.159929 2.415638 2.738693 3.199126
2025-11-30 1.639961 1.787511 1.959761 2.180983 2.466481 2.837629 3.388549
2025-12-07 1.592307 1.739872 1.913182 2.137463 2.429839 2.815098 3.398385
2025-12-14 1.567951 1.718855 1.897504 2.131051 2.439675 2.853942 3.498808
2025-12-21 1.542124 1.694766 1.876584 2.116149 2.436122 2.872014 3.566122
2025-12-28 1.540551 1.699718 1.891157 2.146599 2.493744 2.978355 3.780513
2026-01-04 1.545364 1.712137 1.914805 2.188925 2.568599 3.113391 4.056988
2026-01-11 1.530265 1.699050 1.905263 2.186167 2.579181 3.151580 4.168526
2026-01-18 1.520142 1.692442 1.904396 2.195786 2.608882 3.222557 4.351435
2026-01-25 1.494861 1.665954 1.876950 2.168000 2.582633 3.203180 4.360035
2026-02-01 1.480612 1.652912 1.866317 2.162416 2.587857 3.232976 4.464843
2026-02-08 1.468305 1.641886 1.857776 2.159030 2.595505 3.266004 4.577870
2026-02-15 1.455422 1.629720 1.847255 2.152253 2.597276 3.288526 4.670010
2026-02-22 1.453032 1.630674 1.853640 2.168692 2.633763 3.369678 4.895148
2026-03-01 1.425141 1.598411 1.815557 2.121740 2.572288 3.281609 4.737120
2026-03-08 1.413174 1.586403 1.803989 2.111753 2.566761 3.288531 4.792110
2026-03-15 1.398485 1.570625 1.787093 2.093766 2.548250 3.271998 4.791591
2026-03-22 1.402242 1.578555 1.801603 2.120243 2.598480 3.375985 5.079951
2026-03-29 1.410514 1.592320 1.823967 2.158237 2.667752 3.517808 5.488363